[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141941
TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR NE AR...MOST OF TN...NRN MS/AL/GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422...423...

VALID 141941Z - 142115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
422...423...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WW422 AND WW423.
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH MAY RESULT IN A LARGE MCS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO IF AND WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MIDDLE AND
ERN TN IN WW 423 WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SUPERCELL IN WW
422 HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S...DEWPOINTS IN MID 70S...AND STRONG INSTABILITY /OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE OVER 3000 J PER KG /. THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO FAVORABLE WITH THE OHX VAD REPORTING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OVER 40 KT.

CURRENT THINKING IS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN ACROSS WRN TN...WITH
EVENTUAL COOL POOL AMALGAMATION RESULTING IN ONE OR TWO
MCS/S...WHICH TRACK GENERALLY SWD/SEWD INTO NRN MS/AL/GA.

..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34698360 34528551 34718891 34839025 35049081 35549157
            35839197 36059225 36669213 37019195 37099095 36958909
            36808576 36578309 34698360
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