[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102138
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-102315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS AND AL INTO FAR NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 102138Z - 102315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL
INTO NORTHWEST GA. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE STATUS. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-40 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ONGOING
CONVECTION WAS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000-1500 J/KG. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
AS THE LONGEVITY OF ANY INTENSE UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
WHILE THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXCEPT IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
WINDS. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33198846 33059034 33149097 33429118 33739110 34049067
            34438971 34818846 34978729 35048556 35038483 34898457
            34478460 34098474 33718511 33358588 33248691 33198846


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather