[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101819
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NERN AL...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101819Z - 101945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...DISCRETE CELLS WITH A HISTORY OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
ROTATION ARE MOVING INTO ERN TN...WHILE AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER
HAS EVOLVED FURTHER WEST OVER MIDDLE TN ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
THUS FAR...BUT CLEARING ACROSS SERN TN HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S...RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25-35 KTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY CELL THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/DARROW.. 10/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34788640 34878701 35028727 35328673 35538654 35908634
            36148505 36078402 35738384 34938441 34838512 34788640


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