[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030450
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-030645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...NWRN AL...WRN
AND MIDDLE TN...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 519...521...

VALID 030450Z - 030645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 519...521...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS WW 521 AND THE NRN PART OF WW
519.  AS STORMS EXIT THE NRN PART OF WW 521 BETWEEN 06-07Z...A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH.

DISCUSSION...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY...WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINED THE
GREATEST WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND LA.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND WRN KY...STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS LIMITING
THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.  AND...STRONG 0-1 KM SRH
/300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER GWX AND HPX VADS WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM
NRN MS TO WRN KY.

THE PORTION OF THE QLCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS WAS TRACKING
ESEWD AT 30-35 KT.  GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADO
THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF WW 521.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31329218 32709174 34508995 35808951 36508938 37358841
            37378729 36528657 36208628 35588620 34698672 34118791
            33558831 32868849 32178953 31389043 31329218



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