[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292027
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL / SRN MIDDLE TN /
EXTREME NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292027Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN MS AND MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.  A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
NERN MS SWWD INTO CNTRL MS ALONG A NARROW PLUME OF GREATER
INSTABILITY ALONG A COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT.  THE AIRMASS OVER CNTRL
AND NRN AL IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING OF THIS AIRMASS FROM THE MORNING MCS OVER THE NERN GULF
HAS TEMPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION.  THE 18Z BMX RAOB
EXHIBITED POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BELOW 5 DEG C PER KM/ AND
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE
MCS.  THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS...STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL SUITE MOVES DEVELOPING STORMS IN MS
INTO CNTRL AND NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  AN
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33888901 35358720 35448593 35008529 34418564 33448676
            32128778 31828820 32088848 33588832 33888901


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