[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291910
KYZ000-TNZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291910Z - 292015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER WRN MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NEWD...AN ISOLD STRONG
TO LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.  SPATIAL COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY NOT
REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER MIDDLE TN INTO
CNTRL KY IS MODEST AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND PW AROUND 0.7 INCH...STEEP SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A 130 KT JET STREAK
MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DESPITE
THE STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING STORM
ORGANIZATION...WEAK BUOYANCY /GENERALLY AOB 500 J PER KG MLCAPE VIA
MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  AS
SUCH...AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   35978744 37358677 37948603 37908507 37448478 36858491
            35818597 35608717 35978744



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