[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010311
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-010415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN HALF OF WRN/MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554...555...

VALID 010311Z - 010415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 554...555...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WRN TN AND SWRN KY.

DISCUSSION...SRN EDGE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT...EXHIBITING LEWP AND
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. MINIMAL LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THIS CONVECTION. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN
REFLECTIVITY OVER THE PAST HALF HR WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION...BUT
40-50 KT OF AMBIENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG WINDS. PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS ALSO REMAINS POSITIONED
FROM MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL KY...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. DMGG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...BUT SOME TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS VERY STRONG.

..ROGERS.. 11/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38698448 37388509 36748538 36508595 36048710 35918765
            35868812 36088845 36678798 37738679 38568614 38848539
            38898473 38698448


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