[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010039
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN AR...NRN HALF OF WRN/MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL
KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 010039Z - 010145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN AR...AS WELL AS DEVELOPING
SHOWERS FARTHER E. DOWNSTREAM AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN
AND S-CNTRL KY/ ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A LIKELY WW.

DISCUSSION...SRN EDGE OF A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NERN AR...WITH MINIMAL
LIGHTNING NOTED. PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALSO SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO S-CNTRL KY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
DOMINANT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AND COULD CONSOLIDATE WITH FRONTAL
CONVECTION FARTHER WWD.

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CAPE ARE MEAGER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S. ADDITIONALLY...VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE YIELDING ESTIMATED
0-1 KM SRH VALUES NEAR 300-500 M^2/S^2 /PER NQA AND OHX VWP DATA/.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY VORT WITH SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR ATTM...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN TN.

THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. HOWEVER...DMGG WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD STILL
INCREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 11/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35728634 35518804 35488896 35389058 35589089 36039082
            36488922 36978752 37358642 37338554 36958486 36148519
            35728634


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