[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212050
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 582...

VALID 212050Z - 212145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 582 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF UPWARD
EVOLVING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS.

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW HAS BECOME BETTER IDENTIFIED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS SRN AR TO A POSITION NEAR PBF AT 20Z.  WITH
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ORIENTED DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN KY IT APPEARS
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE SERN-MOST TIP OF THE MO BOOT
HEEL OR PERHAPS NWRN CORNER OF TN BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS WRN KY
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS CYCLED THROUGH VARIOUS UP-DOWN PHASES OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT RECENTLY APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE
SABINE RIVER SOUTH OF SHV.  LONGER RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY BE TIED TO STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND FOR THIS
REASON A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS WRN/NRN LA
INTO SERN AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IF THIS LINEAR MODE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
THREAT.  WITH TIME A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
THE WRN TN VALLEY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.

..DARROW.. 12/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33409227 36518993 36508758 33419000 33409227



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather