[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010850
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-011115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KY...EXTREME ERN AR...NRN
MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010850Z - 011115Z

AS OF 830Z...QUASI-LINEAR MCS WAS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL KY SW
LEX...SWWD ACROSS MEM AREA TO E-CENTRAL AR.  MCS SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY AND
WRN/MID TN...WITH EMBEDDED/SEGMENTED ELEMENTS AND BOWS MOVING ENEWD
40-45 KT.  INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 50-KT SVR
LIMITS.  SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/SPORADIC FOR WW.

ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER MO/AR/NE TX...AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE SFC AIR MASS WITH
TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HOWEVER...JUST ABOVE SFC...VEERING/SWLY ERN BRANCH OF LLJ WAS
EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA.  RELATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
AROUND 850 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT THETAE TO SUSTAIN ELEVATED
INFLOW PARCELS WITH MUCAPE IN 800-1200 J/KG RANGE...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  BENEATH THAT INFLOW
REGION...RELATIVELY DRY LAYER CLOSER TO SFC IS MORE STABLE BUT MAY
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO
SFC IN NEAR-SVR FORM.

..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34719141 35298975 36078808 37048706 37648563 37348417
            35748542 35018806 34418975 34409126 34719141


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