[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302034
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN AR AND SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHERN LA
INTO NORTHWEST MS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302034Z - 302200Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN AR AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHERN LA INTO NORTHWEST MS AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF TN/KY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
RISK...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS MCV CROSSING NORTHERN AR AT MID
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS
BEEN NOTED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV...AND THIS SAME
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES TOWARD/ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODEST
CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ARE SUPPORTING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EASTERN AR DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH A
RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG/ RESIDES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV WILL FAVOR SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED/MAINLY
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   36459085 37158867 36168802 33708943 32499083 32549307
            33489307 34329185 36459085

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