[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092029
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-092230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...PARTS OF NRN AL/NW MS INTO ERN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092029Z - 092230Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED.  BUT...TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY IN ZONE OF STRONGER
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
WEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST/CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THIS IS WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IS BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  BUT...AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO PASS TO THE NORTH...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT MAY OCCUR FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BELT OF 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW... ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 05/09/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

34449332 35699197 36448919 36418628 36058508 35028510
34958658 34928781 34698972 34229110 33919254 34029319

WWWW
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