[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031604
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN
TN...AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031604Z - 031630Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MO EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN KY/NWRN TN AND POTENTIALLY NRN AR.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S/ IN ADVANCE
OF COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING /THROUGH THE 70S/ WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION.  A TSTM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN JOHNSON/HENRY
COUNTIES MO HAS SHOWN SOME INDICATION OF SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  THUS...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  MODERATE TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED TSTMS.

MODERATE RISK AREA IN UPCOMING 1630Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL
BE EXTENDED WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MO...WITH SLIGHT RISK
AREA ALSO ADJUSTED WWD.

..PETERS.. 04/03/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

37859458 38639334 39099253 38999032 38218978 38448690
35608788 35739177 35929438



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