[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121953
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-122130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL/GA INTO NWRN SC AND MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121953Z - 122130Z

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE AND FOCUS LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND TN VLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE
DATA WAS INDICATING MLCAPE HAS NOW CLIMBED ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN AL AND GA. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CAP WERE RESULTING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN GA
AND NRN AL ATTM. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONT AND MID LEVEL WIND
MAX...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EVENING. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING...AND PRESENCE
OF LOW LEVEL FOCUSING ALONG THE COLD AND WARM FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HAIL AND
WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 04/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36638729 36508518 33598192 33188447 34078650



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