[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121906
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN AND CNTRL IL...WRN KY...AND SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...

VALID 121906Z - 122030Z

NUMEROUS TSTMS AND A SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 156 THIS AFTERNOON. FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SEVERE
HAIL AND ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW NOW
ANALYZED OVER SCNTRL IL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT BISECTS
THE LOW CENTER AND STRONG CONVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WAS ORIENTED NW-SE...FROM SERN IA TO WRN KY. INSTABILITY HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR STOUT UPDRAFTS. FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE ERN QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE HAILSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO MAY INCREASE FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW ESEWD ACROSS WRN/SWRN IND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND HIGHER 0-1KM
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THIS AREA
COULD PROMOTE/ENHANCE LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION.

..CARBIN.. 04/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

36668541 36668878 40319174 40288811

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