[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 010244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Satellite imagery this evening indicates that Rina is maintaining a
well-defined center of circulation. However, strong northwesterly
vertical shear continues to impact the storm, resulting in
short-lived, episodic convection in the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. Based on the limited convective activity, as well as
subjective and objective satellite estimates, the intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 35 kt.

Not much has changed with the intensity forecast, with all reliable
consensus aids suggesting that Rina will continue to gradually
weaken. The large-scale environment appears unfavorable for further
intensification due to low mid-level humidity and continued
moderate northwesterly wind shear, as well as the detrimental
influence of nearby Tropical Storm Philippe. Thus, the NHC forecast
shows Rina gradually weakening through tomorrow and degenerating
into a remnant low on Sunday.

Rina is continuing to track northwestward at approximately 12 kt.
The storm is expected to continue on this trajectory tonight, with a
turn to the north expected tomorrow. Early next week, Rina or its
remnants will accelerate northeastward between a mid-level ridge to
its east and an upper-level trough to its west. The new track
forecast is very similar to both the previous NHC forecast and the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 23.5N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 24.7N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 26.5N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 28.7N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 31.1N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net