[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.9N 56.3W at 30/1500
UTC or 400 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12.5N to
18.5N between 50W and 58W. A slow turn toward the west-southwest
and west is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday night through
Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 21.2N 50.4W at 30/1500 UTC
or 740 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
17 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 16N
to 21N between 41W and 49W. The storm should move generally
northwestward through Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Some
slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rina
could dissipate early next week. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 31.5W, from 03N to 20N, moving westward
10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
15.5N between 21W and 40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Dakar to 10.5N27W
to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 10N35W to 10N51W. For
information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida NW to
New Orleans supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the NE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the central
Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. This trough is producing
scattered moderate convection in the central Gulf as well as in
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
depicted in the northern offshore waters N of 27N in association
to the aforementioned front, with seas 3-6 ft. Light to gentle
winds prevail in the remaining basing along with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail
across the waters N of 26N with moderate seas through the
forecast period. The moderate to fresh winds will expand
southward to the central basin Sun night through Wed night.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere
through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Manly moderate trades winds prevail in the central and
northeastern Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gentle
trade winds, with seas 1-3 ft are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to 16.8N 56.6W this
evening, 17.0N 57.2W Sun morning, 17.6N 58.0W Sun evening, 18.5N
58.9W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 59.6W
Mon evening, and 21.0N 59.9W Tue morning. Philippe will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 24.9N 59.3W early Wed.
Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands
generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by
the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will
prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are
forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed, except moderate to fresh
trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. In
addition, please refer to the Tropical Waves section for
convection in the tropical Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
A stationary front is over the NE Florida offshore waters
extending SW to north of Tampa, Florida to New Orleans.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 28N and west
of 76.7W in association with the front. Moderate to fresh NE
winds follow the front along with moderate seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are depicted north of Haiti in
association to an upper-level trough. Otherwise, a cold front is
in the north-central Atlantic extending from 31N36W to 29N46W to
31N58W. Scattered moderated convection is found ahead of the
front, north of 26 between 30W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds are N of this boundary along with seas up to 8 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 3-6 ft will prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N
56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to 16.8N 56.6W
this evening, 17.0N 57.2W Sun morning, 17.6N 58.0W Sun evening,
18.5N 58.9W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N
59.6W Mon evening, and 21.0N 59.9W Tue morning. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.9N 59.3W early
Wed. Rough seas generated from the storm will impact the waters
E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. A stationary
front off the coast of northern Florida will start to shift
south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong
winds north of the front later this weekend into early next
week.

$$
KRV
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