[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.1N 55.9W at 30/0900
UTC or 420 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SSW at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
19 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 19N
between 50W and 57W. A slow turn toward the southwest and west is
expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest
and north-northwest Sunday night and Monday. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a
hurricane early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 20.9N 49.5W at 30/0900 UTC
or 790 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to
21N between 42W and 49W. A general west-northwest to northwest
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Rina
is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 30W, from 04N to 20N, moving westward 10
knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
13N between 20W and 40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border
of Senegal/Guinea-Bissau to 09N27W to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N35W to 05N50W. For information about convection, see the
Tropical Waves Section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Cedar Key, Florida NW to New
Orleans supporting scattered showers and tstms in the NE Gulf of
Mexico as well as moderate to fresh NE to E winds along the
northern offshore waters N of 26N. Moderate seas are in this area
of stronger winds. Light to gentle winds prevail in the remaining
basing along with sight seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate
seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
Sun night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are forecast elsewhere through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 55.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate
seas are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, Philippe will move to 16.9N 56.2W this
afternoon, 16.9N 56.7W Sun morning, 17.3N 57.5W Sun afternoon,
18.0N 58.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.2N
59.0W Mon afternoon, and 20.7N 59.5W Tue morning. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves near 24.1N 59.3W early Wed.
Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands
generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the
middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail
across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are forecast
basin-wide Mon through Wed, except moderate to fresh trades
developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 55.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb.

For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will move to 16.9N 56.2W this
afternoon, 16.9N 56.7W Sun morning, 17.3N 57.5W Sun afternoon,
18.0N 58.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.2N
59.0W Mon afternoon, and 20.7N 59.5W Tue morning. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves near 24.1N 59.3W early Wed.
Rough seas generated from the storm will impact the waters E of
65W through at least the middle of next week.

$$
Ramos
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