[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.3N 55.3W at 29/1500
UTC or 440 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N
between 51W and 56W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move
very slowly toward the west-southwest through Saturday night. A
gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday
and Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next few days. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions
of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 19.4N 47.0W at 29/1500 UTC
or 920 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13.5N to 19.5N
between 40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward
motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during
the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through early
next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 23W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward at
10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 04N to 12N between 16W and 26W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 14.5N17.5W and moves southward
to 08.5N27W and to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to
06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 10N
between 28W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida to New
Orleans, Louisiana. While a pre-frontal trough extends from
south Florida to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This front
is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
northern, central, and eastern Gulf waters. Surface ridging over
the SE CONUS just N of the front is tightening slightly the
pressure gradient, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
to E winds along the northern Gulf waters N of 27N, with seas 2-
5 ft. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to gentle winds
with seas 1-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate
seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
forecast elsewhere through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough located south of Haiti is producing
scattered moderate convection in the area.  Another area of
convection is depicted in the western Caribbean is association
to a trough that extends to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from
the Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the
central Caribbean and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere.
Seas are slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.3W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N 55.4W
this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat evening,
17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and 18.4N
57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas across the
forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical
Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week
south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the
weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Please, refer
to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections, for
convection in the basin not related to the tropical cyclones.

Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the western
Bahamas to 31N and west of 74W in association to a stationary
front. Behind the front northeast fresh winds are depicted, with
seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast and east winds and
moderate seas dominate the subtropical waters west and east of
the tropical cyclones.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N
55.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N
55.4W this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat
evening, 17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and
18.4N 57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas
ahead of the storm will continue to spread east of 68W through
the end of the week.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net