[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 29/0300 UTC, is near
18.3N 55.0W. Philippe is moving toward the WSW, or 240 degrees,
04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 120 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are
12 feet or greater are: within 210 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within
90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 210 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 280 nm of
the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rina, at 29/0300 UTC, is near 18.4N
46.6W. Rina is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, 06 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 60 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are
12 feet or greater are: within 135 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant; within 135 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within
30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 14 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of
the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Rina
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 08N to 10N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 06N to 14N
from 26W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 11N19W, to 07N31W. The ITCZ continues from 07N31W,
to 05N38W, and 04N44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the remainder of the area that is within 360 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough/the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 27N northward from
95W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 26N northward.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 26N88W, to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in the
Yucatan Peninsula is from 19N to 21N between 88W and 90W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is
from 26N southward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the coastal waters of the NW part of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight sea heights, cover the
remainder of the area.

Fresh E winds are expected through the forecast period due to
strong high pressure ridging over the southeastern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented central Gulf of Mexico surface trough reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 83W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb
and for 200 mb shows weak cyclonic wind flow with a trough in
parts of the NW corner of the area. The GFS model for 500 mb and
for 200 mb shows an inverted trough from northern Colombia to
Hispaniola. The GFS model for 700 mb shows comparatively broader
cyclonic wind flow with two separate inverted troughs.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area
that is from 80W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 150 nm to the north of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh NE to E winds are
within 180 nm to the south of Hispaniola. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the area. The comparatively highest
sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet between Puerto Rico and
Venezuela. Slight sea heights are in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia westward,
beyond Costa Rica. No significant deep convective precipitation is
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Philippe will move to 18.2N 55.2W Fri morning, 17.9N 55.6W Fri
evening, 17.6N 55.9W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.2W Sat evening, 17.0N
56.6W Sun morning, and 17.0N 57.0W Sun evening. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves near 18.8N 57.6W late Mon.
Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands
generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward
the end of the week south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft
north of 17N into the weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will
prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

A cold front/stationary front are along 31N and to the north of
31N between 40W and 75W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 29.5N northward between 40W and
50W. One surface trough curves along 31N51W 29N60W 25N66W.
A second surface trough curves along 28N67W 25N69W 23N71W.
A third surface trough is along 30N78W, to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, to 26N82W just off the coast of SW Florida. A stationary
front extends from a 1012 mb 32N75W low pressure center, to
central Florida, and it curves through the NE Gulf of Mexico
toward SE coastal Louisiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 28N to 31N between 72W and 75W. Isolated
moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N
northward, away from the two tropical storms.

Rough seas are from Tropical Storm Philippe toward the north and
the northwest. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are from 18N to 23N from 20W
eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 23N between 23W and 39W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are from Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic to 25N between 60W and 70W. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Philippe will move to 18.2N 55.2W Fri morning, 17.9N 55.6W Fri
evening, 17.6N 55.9W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.2W Sat evening, 17.0N
56.6W Sun morning, and 17.0N 57.0W Sun evening. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves near 18.8N 57.6W late Mon.
Rough seas ahead of the storm are east of 63W, and will continue
to spread east of 68W through the end of the week.

$$
MT
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