[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 282046
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

Tropical Storm Rina has not changed much this afternoon. Visible
satellite imagery indicates that the center of circulation is
mostly exposed to the northwest of persistent deep convective
activity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB both support
an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

A combination of Rina's close proximity to Tropical Storm Philippe
and moderate deep-layer northwesterly shear is likely to limit
intensification in the short term. This shear is expected to
increase this weekend and early next week, and it not forecast to
abate during the forecast period. The NHC forecast remains in the
middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly lower than the prior
forecast. While Rina is expected to remain a tropical storm
throughout the forecast period, uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is higher than normal due to the potential interaction with
Philippe.

Rina is moving northwestward, with an initial forward speed
near 12 kt. The tropical storm should begin to turn more westward
tonight and continue this general motion for the next several days.
Early next week, the system is expected to turn northward and
eventually northeastward as a mid-level ridge builds to the west.
The NHC forecast is a blend of the prior forecast and the HCCA and
TVCN consensus guidance throughout the forecast period. As
with the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is
lower than normal due to uncertainty regarding the potential
interaction of Rina with Tropical Storm Philippe during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 18.1N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 18.8N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 19.4N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 19.7N  48.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 20.1N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 20.6N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 21.5N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 24.2N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 26.8N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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