[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.5N 53.7W at 27/1500
UTC or 540 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Peak seas are around 19 ft near and just northwest of the center.
The radius of 12 ft or greater seas extends outward to 330 nm
from the center in the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous
moderate with scattered strong convection is occurring within 300
nm of the center in the E semicircle. A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days, with
little change in strength over the next day or two. A slow
weakening is forecast this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning Associated with Invest Area (AL91):
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43.5W from 17N southward
through a 1007 mb low (AL91) at 11.6N43.5W, and moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen within 300 nm of the center in the northwest semicircle. A
large area of fresh to near-gale force E to SE winds with 8 to 12
ft seas are present from 09N to 20N between 37W and 46W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to
form in the next day or so while the system moves west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. The chance of
development within the next 48 hours is high. Gale force winds
are forecast to develop with this low pressure near 13N44.5W this
evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
tropical wave associated with AL91.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 19N southward
across Central America and into the East Pacific. It is moving
west at around 10 kt. Aided by mid-level diffluent flow,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15.5N to
21N between 81.5W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W to 07N23W to 07N31W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 12N between 23W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface trough extends from the north-central Gulf to the
western Bay of Campeche. Isolated convection is depicted in the
central Gulf in association with this trough. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted in the north-central Gulf ahead of a
frontal boundary. Another surface trough runs southwestward from
northeastern Florida to Sarasota, Florida to 25N81.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Channel
northeastward to the Ft. Myers, FL area. Moderate SE winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are noted in the southeastern Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface trough over the central Gulf will
drift slowly W through tonight before dissipating. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to the east of the
trough, over the eastern half of the Gulf, through tonight.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas will
prevail across the basin through early Thu. Winds are forecast to
increase over the northern Gulf the end of the week into the
weekend as high pressure ridging strengthens over the southeastern
United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 12N to 17N between 59W
and 66W, including over the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally
fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail over the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.5N 53.7W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Philippe will move to 18.0N 54.7W this evening, 18.6N 56.1W Thu
morning, 19.0N 57.8W Thu evening, 19.0N 59.5W Fri morning, 18.9N
60.8W Fri evening, and 18.7N 62.2W Sat morning. Philippe will
weaken to a remnant low near 18.4N 64.7W early Sun. Rough seas
across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated
by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of
the week. High pressure north of the area will support moderate
to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central
Caribbean through tonight. Winds across the Caribbean Sea will
then diminish late this week into this weekend.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe and a Gale Warning related to Invest
AL91.

Convergent southeasterly winds to the east of a surface trough
over Florida are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the south of the western Bahamas northward to
beyond 31N, mainly west of 73.5W. The Atlantic ridge associated
with the Bermuda and Azores Highs is supporting light to gentle
winds north of 26N between 28W and the Florida coast. Seas are 3-5
ft west of 65W and north of 25N. South of 25N and west of 65W,
moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail. From 26N to 31N and
between 30W and 65W, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. Fresh to
locally strong NE trades and 6-10 ft seas prevail in between the
Canary Islands and Cabo Verde Islands. Strong winds and rough seas
associated with Tropical Storm Philippe and Invest AL91 are
occurring from 10N to 24N between 38W and 58W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near
17.5N 53.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Philippe will move to 18.0N 54.7W this
evening, 18.6N 56.1W Thu morning, 19.0N 57.8W Thu evening, 19.0N
59.5W Fri morning, 18.9N 60.8W Fri evening, and 18.7N 62.2W Sat
morning. Philippe will weaken to a remnant low near 18.4N 64.7W
early Sun. Rough seas ahead of the storm are east of 60W, and will
continue to spread east of 65W through the end of the week.
Elsewhere, seas will build tonight and Thu north of the Bahamas
and east of Florida in NE swell.

$$
KRV
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