[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270004 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.1N 51.3W at 2100 UTC,
or 780 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 20
ft near just north of the center. Philippe continues to struggle
due to strong west-southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to
upper-level low to its northwest. The low-level center was completely
exposed and void of deep convection most of the afternoon,
However, convection has developed over and near the center in the
past few hours. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
is now seen within 30 nm W and 320 nm E of the center. A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days
as well as gradual weakening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. The latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory can be read at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Invest Area (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show
signs of organization in association with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. A mean center of this area of low pressure was
estimated near 11N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 39W and 44W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two
while the system moves west- northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. Seas 8 to 11 ft are occurring on the north
and east side of the low pressure. There is a high chance of
formation through 48 hours. In anticipation of this tropical
development, a gale warning has been issued for Wed along the
path of this system. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information on the gale warning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward.
Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered strong convection
from 11.5N to 23N between 81W and 89W. These strong clusters of
thunderstorms are producing outflow boundaries containing very
strong wind gusts which have increased seas to 4 to 7 ft across
much of the western Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the west coast of
Africa near 15N17W then reaches southwestward to near 07N24W. The
ITCZ begins at 07N24W to 08N31W and resumes at 06.5N45W to
08N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 09.5N between 21W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface trough extends southward from the western Florida
Panhandle to just offshore of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula.
Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along and to the east of
the trough axis, over the eastern Gulf, and the Yucatan Peninsula
and Channel. Only isolated thunderstorms are noted to the west of
the trough axis. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate SE to
S winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are noted across the eastern Gulf,
east of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate NE to N winds with 2
to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the east-central Gulf
will drift slowly into the western Gulf through mid week and
dissipate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along
and to the east of the trough, over the eastern half of the Gulf,
through Wed night. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over
the north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin
through the middle of the week. Winds may increase over the
northern Gulf the end of the week into the weekend as high
pressure ridging strengthens over the southeastern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean earlier this afternoon
have diminished in intensity, while numerous strong convection is
presently occurring near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Fresh SE winds are assumed to still prevail across the NW
Caribbean with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trades prevail across much of the basin between 65W and
80W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE winds
and 3-5 ft prevail in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms over portions of the
western Caribbean this evening will continue to generate fresh to
locally strong winds, and are expected to gradually diminish
tonight. High pressure north of the area will support moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean
into mid week, with fresh to strong pulses off northwest
Venezuela and northeast Colombia mainly during the overnight and
early morning hours through Wed morning. Tropical Storm Philippe
is expected to maintain a west-northwest motion for the next few
days and pass north of the northern Leeward Islands Fri through
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe and Invest AL91.

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 32N74W. Weak ridging in
this area is producing winds gentle or weaker over the western
Atlantic, except for moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds from
Northeast Florida through the Bahamas to north of Hispaniola.
West of 65W, seas are 5 ft or less in NE to E swell. Scattered
thunderstorms are seen west of 76W. A surface trough extends from
31N61W to 24N66W with isolated showers near its axis. A high
pressure ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 36N18W to
high pressure near 31N36W to a 1023 high pressure near 32N35W.
Winds are moderate or weaker north of 23N across the E Atlantic
with seas 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Over the tropical eastern and
central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe and Invest AL91 are
causing strong winds and a large area of high seas from 06N to
24N between 32W and 58W.

For the forecast west of 50W, Tropical Storm Philippe Philippe
will move to 17.3N 52.7W Wed morning, 18.4N 54.5W Wed
afternoon, 19.2N 56.1W Thu morning, 19.7N 57.9W Thu afternoon,
weaken to a tropical depression near 20.0N 59.3W Fri morning, and
20.1N 61.0W Fri afternoon. Philippe will become a remnant low as
it moves to near 20.2N 64.0W Sat afternoon. High seas in large E
swell ahead of the storm have moved W of 55W, and will continue
to spread W of 65W through the end of the week. Elsewhere, seas
will build by Thu north of the Bahamas and east of Florida in NE
swell.

$$
Stripling
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