[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.3N 45.5W at 25/1500
UTC or 1010 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Peak seas are
near 21 ft. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight,
and a northwestward motion is forecast to occur in a couple of
days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tropical Storm Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): A tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Maximum winds are 20 kt and peak seas to 8 ft. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-12N
between 27W-33W.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a
medium chance of formation through 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave - Invest AL91 - has its axis
along 31W between 03N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. See
SPECIAL FEATURES above for more information.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-19N between 76W-
83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough leaves the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W
and continues to a 1012 mb low pressure (AL91) near 10N31W and
then to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from there to 07N40W, where
there is a break. The monsoon trough begins again at 16N46W to
10N53W, where the ITCZ then extends to the south of Venezuela
near 09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N-12N between 27W-33W and from 09N-12N between
48W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-14N
east of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula near 21N89W
north-northeastward to 28N85W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted south of 28N and east of 87W, as the surface trough and
convection are being forced by a deep-layered trough over the
same location. A weak 1015 mb high is centered near the Texas
and Louisiana coast at 29N93W. Winds away from any thunderstorms
are light to gentle with seas 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the southeast and
south-central Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through
mid week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will
persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern
will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas
across the basin through the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda-Azores High well north of the Caribbean interacting
with the 1008 mb Colombian Low to produce generally fresh trades
over the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate elsewhere.
Seas are 5-9 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
10N-19N between 76W-83W in association with the tropical wave
near 77W. Winds and seas are higher in association with the
thunderstorm activity.

In the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
eastern and central Caribbean into mid week, with fresh to
strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia
during mainly the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will
build in mixed NE and E swell across the waters east of the
Leeward Islands starting late Tue, ahead of Tropical Storm
Philippe. Philippe is expected to turn NW before reaching 55W,
and move into the central Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Philippe and Invest AL91.

An expansive Bermuda-Azores High and associated ridge extends
just north of our waters. Aside from higher winds near Philippe
and Invest AL91, the trades are generally gentle to moderate
(with seas 6-8 ft) in the central and eastern Atlantic and light
to gentle (with seas 4-6 ft) in the western Atlantic. A surface
trough extends from 25N65W to 28N63W with scattered moderate
convection within 120 NM east of the trough axis, but no
enhancement of winds or seas.

Philippe will move to 17.6N 47.2W this evening, 18.1N 49.2W Tue
morning, 18.9N 51.2W Tue evening, 19.9N 52.9W Wed morning, 21.1N
54.2W Wed evening, and 22.1N 55.4W Thu morning. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.7N 56.9W early
Fri. Regardless of the exact position of the center later in the
week, rough seas ahead of the storm can be expected east of 60W
starting late Tue. Elsewhere, seas may build by Thu north of the
Bahamas and east of Florida in NE swell.

$$
Landsea
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