[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 15.6N 41.4W at 24/0900
UTC or 1000 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas near the
center are up to 14 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted within 180 nm in the northeastern semicircle.
A continued westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected into early next week. Gradual strengthening is expected
during the next few days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Philippe.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 08N and between 15W and 20W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 68W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the coast of Venezuela at the base of the tropical
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and to 08N25W to 11N30W, and again from 13N45W
to 07N50W. No deep convection is noted aside from the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from 1011 mb high pressure to the coast of
South Texas. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active over the southeast Gulf along a surface trough reaching
from near Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. This pattern is
supporting gentle NE breezes and slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough over the southeast Gulf
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift
slowly into the western Gulf through the early part of the week
and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the
north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin
through the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft associated with a broad upper trough extending
southward through Cuba is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the northwest Caribbean. Thunderstorms are
also active along the monsoon trough off Colombia. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh trade
winds are noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, with fresh
winds pulsing along the coast of South America. Combined seas are
4 to 6 ft in these areas. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and
central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh
to strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia
during mainly the overnight and early morning hours. Looking
ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across waters east
of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of newly formed
Tropical Storm Philippe, currently over the eastern Atlantic.
Philippe is expected to turn NW before reaching 55W next week, and
move into the central Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Philippe.

Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate a surface trough across the northern Bahamas to the Cay
Sal area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the
trough. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active
near another trough from 22N to 28N between 60W and 65W.
Elsewhere outside of the immediate area of Philippe, weak high
pressure is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds with 5 to 7
ft combined seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough over the northern
Bahamas will move westward into Florida through late today. Weak
high pressure will build from the north-central Atlantic north of
28N in the wake of the trough. Looking ahead, seas will build in
mixed NE and E swell across waters northeast of the Leeward
Islands starting Mon, ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe
is centered near 15.6N 41.4W at 24/0900 UTC or 1000 nm W of the
Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Philippe is expected to turn NW and stay east of
55W Wed and Thu. Also, low pressure moving off the eastern
seaboard may bring fresh NE to E winds and building seas off
northeast Florida by late Wed.


$$
Christensen
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