[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 170245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

Strong northerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have
taken a toll on Margot during the past 24 hours.  Deep convection
became displaced to the south of the center earlier today, and
within the past 6 hours or so, the deep convection has essentially
dissipated.   The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt,
which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Margot has completed a clockwise loop over the past few days, and
the storm is now moving westward at 7 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of Margot should steer the cyclone westward to
west-northwestward for about another 24 hours.  After that time, the
ridge is predicted to slide eastward and then southward causing
Margot to turn northward, and then east-northeastward to eastward
around the northern side of the ridge.  The track guidance continues
to be in good agreement with this scenario and only minor
adjustments to the previous NHC track were needed.

The environment ahead of Margot is not expected to improve during
the next couple of days.  Moderate to strong shear and dry air is
likely to prevent the return of organized deep convection during the
next day or two, Margot is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone during that time. On Monday night into Tuesday, the cyclone
is forecast to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough that
could produce enough instability to allow for a return of deep
convection and some slight restrengthening.  Shortly after that
time, northwesterly shear and another surge of dry air should cause
a gradual spin down of the winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 33.9N  40.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 34.1N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 35.1N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 36.5N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 37.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z 38.3N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  20/0000Z 37.8N  35.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 37.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z 37.6N  29.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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