[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is centered near 44.5N 66.1W at
16/2100 UTC or 40 nm ESE of Eastport Maine, moving N at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking near 36
kt near the center. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for details.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 34.3N 39.6W at 16/2100
UTC or 650 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Swells generated by Margot will
continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, though slight fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website -
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more
information on Lee and Margot.

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 20.8N 47.1W at
16/2100 UTC or 870 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NNW at
14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
around 13 ft near the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection near and north of the center from 20N to 26N
between 43W and 49W. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and the system could become a hurricane by early
next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

The latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories for all
three systems can be found at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 10N36W.
Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm of either side of the
boundary.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern
Caribbean S of 13N and W of 73W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the NW gulf waters enhancing
scattered showers N of 26N and W of 95W. Another trough extends
across the Florida peninsula with scattered showers E of 82W.
Elsewhere, a 1015 mb high is centered near 26N91W and is
promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will dominate the basin through early
Sun, supporting mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds along
with slight seas. A weak cold front is forecast to move off New
Orleans and Mississippi into the N-central and NE Gulf Sun
followed by N to NW moderate winds and isolated to scattered
showers. The front is forecast to move E of the area by Sun night,
with a reinforcing from Mon. A weak surface ridge will develop
afterward, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds through
Wed, freshening in the NE Gulf Thu. Otherwise, winds will pulse to
moderate to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and
Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms induced by island
heating are found near the southern coast of Cuba, Hispaniola and
Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Caribbean Basin. A modest trade-wind regime
continue across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are
noted at the north-central and west-central basin. Gentle to
moderate monsoonal winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist near Costa
Rica and Panama. Gentle easterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, northerly swell affecting the NE Caribbean Passages
will gradually subside tonight, then is forecast to build back
slightly again there Sun night through Wed due to Tropical
Depression Fifteen, which is forecast to remain well NE of the
area while strengthening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail across the Central Caribbean, locally fresh to
strong off Colombia, while gentle to moderate winds will dominate
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee, Tropical Storm Margot and Tropical
Depression Fifteen.

A stationary front extends east-northeastward from near Cape
Canaveral, Florida to near Bermuda. No significant convection is
noted with this front at this time. A surface trough across the
Florida Peninsula is enhancing scattered showers W of 78W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to large northerly swell generated by Post-Tropical
Cyclone Lee and T.S. Margot is maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas north
of 25N between 33W and 77W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with
seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells are found from 18N to
25N between 50W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the eastern
Atlantic, gentle to moderate NNE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are found north of 10N between the Africa coast and 30W,
including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west outside
the direct impact from Tropical Depression Fifteen, gentle to
moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
northwesterly swell are evident from 10N to 20N between 40W and
the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal
winds with 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the
rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Depression Fifteen will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.3N 48.2W Sun morning, move
to 24.2N 49.7W Sun afternoon, 25.6N 51.1W Mon morning, strengthen
to a hurricane near 26.9N 52.9W Mon afternoon, 28.3N 54.8W Tue
morning, and 30.0N 56.4W Tue afternoon. Fifteen will change little
in intensity as it moves well N of the area to 34.6N 57.3W Wed
afternoon. Otherwise, high pres will prevail across the waters
through the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the
SE U.S. coast early next week with new high pres building down
behind it. The front may stall and linger along 27N/28N through
mid-week.

$$
ERA
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