[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 161454
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia.  Data
from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure
has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little
to 65 kt.  Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger
just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas
of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast.  In fact, an
observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently
recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h).  Radar data from New
England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions
of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada.

Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the
left this morning.  The core of the cyclone will likely brush the
western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and
then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this
afternoon.  After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is
expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee
across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core
winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western
portions of New Brunswick.  Steady weakening is expected after Lee
moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late
Monday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch
areas.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic
Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas.  The strong winds are already leading to downed
trees and power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern
Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 43.5N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/0000Z 45.7N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 48.3N  62.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 50.8N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z 53.0N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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