[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is centered near 41.8N 66.0W at
16/0900 UTC or 200 nm SSW of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving N at 22
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered
moderate convection in the form of rain bands is N of 39N between
55W and 75W. A northward motion but at a slower forward speed is
expected later today, and the center of Lee is forecast to reach
western Nova Scotia around midday. Lee is then expected to turn
toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic
Canada tonight and Sunday. Lee is expected to be at or just below
hurricane strength when it reaches Nova Scotia later today.
Weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across
Atlantic Canada.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 35.0N 38.3W at 16/0900
UTC or 570 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 32N to 35N between 37W and 42W. Margot is expected to
continue to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two.
A faster northeastward to eastward motion is forecast by early
next week. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day
or so, though Margot may re-intensify some by early next week.

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 17.9N 45.3W at
16/0900 UTC or 930 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NNW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
12 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N
to 24N between 42W and 49W. A general northwest or north-northwest
motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Strengthening
is expected during the next few days, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today and it could
become a hurricane by early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 31W, from 02N o 14N, moving westward 5
knots to 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
14N between 30W and 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N25W to 12N35W. For
convection details, see the Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails in the region, thus maintaining
light to gentle variable winds around a center of high pressure of
1016 mb near 26N86W. Seas are slight basin-wide. Otherwise, middle
to upper level diffluent flow support isolated showers along the
northern gulf offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the northern Gulf will
dominate the basin through early Sun, supporting mainly light to
gentle variable winds along with slight seas. A weak cold front is
forecast to move off New Orleans and Mississippi into the NE Gulf
Sun morning followed by N to NW moderate winds and isolated to
scattered showers. The front is forecast to move E of the area by
Sun night. A weak surface ridge will develop afterward, supporting
gentle to moderate NE to E winds through Tue. Otherwise, winds
will pulse to moderate to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula this
evening and Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are ongoing in the Leeward Islands, between
Jamaica and E Cuba, and in the Panama and Costa Rica offshore
waters. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds prevail in the central
Caribbean along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate E winds and
slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, northerly swell affecting the NE Caribbean
Passages will gradually subside today, then is forecast to build
again Mon through Wed due to Tropical Depression Fifteen, which is
forecast to remain well NE of the area. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh trades will prevail across the Central Caribbean while
gentle to moderate winds will dominate elsewhere through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details on
Tropical Depression Fifteen.



For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Depression Fifteen will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.6N 46.4W this afternoon,
move to 21.5N 48.3W Sun morning, 23.1N 49.8W Sun afternoon, 24.5N
51.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.9N 53.0W Mon
afternoon, and 27.2N 55.1W Tue morning. Fifteen will change little
in intensity as it moves near 31.0N 58.4W early Wed. High pressure
will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Otherwise, a
weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast early
next week with new high pres building down behind it.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net