[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 160552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
200 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
MASSACHUSETTS, NOVA SCOTIA, AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF MAINE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 65.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
40.8 North, longitude 65.9 West.  Lee is moving toward the north
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through today.  On the forecast track, the center of Lee
will continue to approach the coast of Nova Scotia this morning.
Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm.  Maximum sustained winds
remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some gradual
weakening is forecast, with Lee expected to become fully
extratropical very soon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).  A station at Wellfleet, Massachusetts, reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h)
during the past few hours.  A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h)
was reported at Bacarro Point, Nova Scotia.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 965 mb
(28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today.  Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coast of Massachusetts and will spread
northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring along
the coast of Nova Scotia and will spread across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Atlantic Canada through the day.  These conditions
are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL:  Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 millimeters) over portions of
eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This may
produce localized urban and small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft
Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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