[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 152041
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

Margot has changed little in appearance since the last advisory.
Visible imagery still shows a broad and robust low-level circulation
with occasional bursts of convection near the center. A couple
microwave passes over the past few hours showed some fragmented
curved bands in the northeast quadrant. Given little change in
appearance, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, closest to the
TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is still drifting southeastward at 4 kt. Margot
is on the southeast side of a building mid-level ridge and expected
to complete a clockwise turn by Sunday. Early next week, the storm
should begin a northward motion followed by a turn to the east. By
days 4 and 5 there is more uncertainty in the track forecast. The
model guidance has shifted south and trended slower than the
previous NHC track forecast. The biggest changes in the track
forecast for this advisory show a noticeable shift to the south and
a decrease in forward motion late in the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are relatively hostile and should cause a
continued weakening trend. Still, marginal sea surface temperatures
could lead to periodic flares of convection. Therefore, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening associated with the
expected spin down. Margot is still expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 36.0N  37.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 35.5N  38.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 34.8N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 34.6N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 35.2N  42.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 36.2N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 37.9N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 39.2N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 39.0N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net