[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 151755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
200 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF LEE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 340 MI...635 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The goverment of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a northward motion at
a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away
from Bermuda and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic
Canada through Saturday.  Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lee is expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it
reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas
in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and
spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.  These conditions are likely
to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, 50 to 100 millimeters,
in eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and portions of New
Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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