[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 141441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR CAPE COD, MARTHA'S VINEYARD,
AND NANTUCKET...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 68.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of
Massachusetts from Woods Hole to Hull, including Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts
* Block Island
* North of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter's Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda today and tonight, approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across
Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected
to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A wind gust of 48 mph (78
km/h) has recently been reported at the L.F. Wade International
Airport on Bermuda.  NOAA buoy 41048 located about 130 miles (210
km) northwest of the center of Lee has recently reported a peak
one-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph
(107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere
in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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