[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lee, at 14/0600 UTC, is near
28.5N 68.0W. The hazards for land are: wind, the storm
surge, the surf, and rainfall. LEE is moving toward
the N, or 350 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Hurricane-
force winds are: within 100 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 80 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
80 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-
force winds are: within 230 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 230 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 170 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the
sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 500 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 390 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 480 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 420 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 45 feet. The sea
heights are ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet within 810 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 27N northward between 66W and 70W.
Scattered to numerous moderate is elsewhere from 27N northward
between 63W and 72W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the remainder of the area that is from 19N northward
between 59W and 74W.

The center of Hurricane Margot, at 14/0300 UTC, is near
35.2N 40.5W. Margot is moving toward the N, or 010 degrees,
06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts
to 90 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 60 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 15 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 50 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 200 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 190 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 140 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 170 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are
12 feet or greater is: within 330 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are 32 feet. The sea heights are 8 feet or higher
from 27N northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm of the center
in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 20N to 26N between 38W and 53W.

...INVEST AL97 in the Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean...

A tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 19N southward.
A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N along the tropical
wave. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 450 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 16N to 22N between 39W and 45W.
The precipitation pattern continues to become better
organized. The environmental conditions are favorable for
more development of this system. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form by this weekend. The low pressure center
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest to northwest
10 to 15 mph in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The chance of this feature developing into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 14N to 16N between 27W and 31W.
Scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 14W
and 17W. Scattered strong is from 04N to 09N between 18W
and 23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N
to 13N between 29W and 35W.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 15N48W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 15N
between 44W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N30W, to the INVEST AL97 low
pressure center, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 15N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An inland frontal boundary passes through the southern
sections of Alabama, to southern Mississippi, to
Louisiana, to East Texas, and beyond south central Texas.
A 1013 mb high pressure center is near 30N86W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 28N northward from 87W westward. Broad surface
low pressure is inland, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere from 85W
westward.

The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Mostly moderate or slower wind speeds are in the
western half of the Gulf. Mostly gentle to moderate
wind speeds are in the eastern half of the area.

A weak ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate
the basin throughout the forecast period, supporting
mainly light to gentle winds N of 24N and gentle to
moderate winds S of 24N. Moderate return flow will
develop across the W and SW Gulf Thu night. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected across the western
Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late
afternoon and evening through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward
from 70W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related
to Hurricane Lee. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is along 20N between 64W and 66W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the Windward
Passage westward.

Fresh easterly winds are from 14N southward between 64W
and 69W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere.
The sea heights are: 4 feet from the Mona Passage eastward;
3 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela and Colombia;
and 2 feet elsewhere from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward between
75W in Colombia and 80W. Most of the related precipitation
is to the south of the monsoon trough.

Hurricane Lee is N of the area near 28.0N 67.7W at 11 PM EDT,
moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee is
expected to continue toward the N through Fri and exit the
region. Large N-NW swell across the adjacent Atlantic will
move through the NE Caribbean Passage through early Thu
before gradually diminishing Thu night and then decreasing
quickly Fri. Moderate E trade winds will return to the
Caribbean on Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, and the INVEST AL97.

Fresh or faster wind speeds are from 20N northward from
55W westward, with respect to Hurricane Lee. Strong
NE winds are from 18N to 26N from 22W eastward. Fresh
easterly winds are from 15N to 25N between 22W and 37W.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are: from 7 feet to 9 feet
from 07N southward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet in much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for the sea heights that
are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from 23N southward
between 44W and 60W.

Hurricane Lee is near 28.0N 67.7W at 11 PM EDT, moving
north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts
to 110 kt. Minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee will
continue moving northward and reach near 29.6N 68.1W Thu
morning, near 31.9N 68.0W Thu evening, pass W of Bermuda
near 34.8N 67.2W Fri morning, and continue northward
across the NW Atlantic through the weekend. Long-period
swell generated by Lee is expected to impact all waters
north through east of the Bahamas through the weekend.
High pressure will build across the area late Fri through
Sun. Low pressure AL97 will approach the far eastern
part of the area Mon and Mon night, possibly as
a tropical cyclone.

$$
mt
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