[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 132052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Very little change is noted with Margot's convective structure
since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit a double
eyewall structure based on a 1527Z AMSR-2 pass, and Margot's eye
still occasionally appears in conventional GOES-16 IR and VIS
imagery. Given the lack of change with the hurricane's internal
structure and appearance, the intensity will be maintained at 80 kt
for this advisory. The motion has bent just slightly to the right
since this morning and is now moving due north at 6 kt.

Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a narrow
upper trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue
over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes very
challenging. Margot will then become caught in weak steering
currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge developing
to the north of the cyclone by late week into the weekend. There
remain notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to
the strength and position of this ridge, which has large
implications in the longer-range track of Margot, but there has been
some tightening of the model consensus since this morning. This
supports the storm making a gradual clockwise loop between 36-72 hrs
as the ridge initially builds north of the cyclone and then slides
off to the east. By 120 hrs, the storm will likely begin
accelerating off to the northeast as it gets picked up by the
westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains low
given the model spread late in the forecast period.

Increasing deep-layer shear during the next 24 to 36 hrs,
entrainment of drier air, and a likelihood of Margot upwelling
cooler waters should result in a steady weakening of the cyclone
going through the end of the week and into the weekend. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the previous one and shows a gradual
decrease in strength through 72 hrs, in good agreement with the
consensus of the intensity aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot
a tropical cyclone through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from
the global models suggests these increasingly hostile environmental
factors could cause the system to lose organized convection and
become post-tropical by early next week as the storm lingers west
of the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 34.7N  40.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 35.5N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 36.4N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 36.7N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 36.5N  39.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 36.0N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 35.6N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 36.5N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 39.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake
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