[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 111440
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

Satellite images indicate that Margot is strengthening. A ragged
eye has emerged from the central dense overcast pattern, although
it is open on the east side.  Additionally, overnight microwave
data showed the eye pattern on numerous passes, suggesting this is
a real eye feature.  With the improvement in the satellite
presentation, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, closest to
the D-MINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS, but below recent
Dvorak DT estimates of 65 kt.

Margot is moving northward at about 9 kt, and that general motion
should continue for the next few days, with a north-northwest bend
expected by midweek as ridging builds to the east of the storm.  A
large mid-latitude ridge is forecast to block Margot's path after
that time, causing the cyclone to basically stall by the weekend.
Guidance is in very good agreement for the first few days, then the
uncertainty grows in unsteady steering currents beneath the ridge,
with aids fanning out in all directions.  The new forecast is
similar to the previous one, showing little motion at days 4-5 as a
compromise between the various divergent model solutions.

The storm has a chance to strengthen further over the next couple
of days while it moves over relatively warm waters up to 28 deg C
and in lessening shear.  In a few days, an increase in shear and
dry-air entrainment should gradually weaken Margot.  This is an
interesting forecast because the dynamical model guidance is well
below the statistical guidance, despite a seemingly conducive
environment for intensification.  The new NHC forecast leans
closer to the statistical models, adjusted a bit higher than the
last NHC intensity prediction, similar to the Florida State
Superensemble and NOAA corrected-consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 26.1N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 27.6N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 29.8N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 31.9N  40.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 33.6N  41.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 34.7N  41.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 35.8N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 37.1N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Taylor
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