[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 110241
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Margot has been exhibiting a figure six cloud pattern on satellite
imagery, with a dry slot wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation.  Central convection has not increased recently, and the
system has become essentially co-located with an upper-level trough.
The combination of Margot and the trough appears to have created an
upper-level outflow channel over the northeast quadrant, but outflow
is limited elsewhere.  Subjective Dvorak classifications are T3.5
from both TAFB and SAB, corresponding to a current intensity of 55
kt.  Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are mostly a little
lower, and there is no change to the current maximum winds for this
advisory.

The storm continues to move on a northward heading with a motion
estimate of 360/7 kt.  Margot should move generally northward
through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge for the next
48 to 72 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  In 3 to 5
days, a blocking high develops to the north of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slow and possibly erratic motion late in
the forecast period.  The official forecast track, which is similar
to the one from the previous advisory, is rather close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, TVCA, objective aid.

Global model predictions indicate that, over the next couple of
days, the upper-level trough will shift south and southwest of
Margot with anticyclonic upper-tropospheric flow developing over the
system.  This should be conducive for some strengthening, and the
official forecast shows Margot becoming a hurricane soon and then
intensifying a little more over the next 48 hours.  This is in good
agreement with the LGEM and consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 24.6N  39.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 27.8N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 29.8N  40.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 31.8N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 33.6N  41.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 34.8N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 36.6N  41.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 37.5N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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