[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 21.6N 61.0W at 10/1500 UTC or 230
nm NNE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are
estimated around 36 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is seen within 75 nm N and 164 nm
across the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is present elsewhere up to 250 nm E and 180 nm W of
the center. A slower west- northwestward motion is expected
during the next few days. And some strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lee is
expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days.
Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are
expected to begin along much of the U.S. East Coast later today
and worsen through this week. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 23.0N 40.0W at 10/1500
UTC or 990 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 19
ft near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
near and north of the center within 130 nm, while scattered
moderate convection is seen farther northeast and east from 21N
to 29N between 33W and 41W. Margot is expected to gradually turn
toward the N during the next couple of days. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Margot is likely to become a
hurricane within the next couple of days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 27.5W from
18N to 06N, with a 1012 mb low center (Invest AL97) near
13.5N27.5W. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N
between 28W and 31W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development during the next day or so
as the disturbance moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to merge with a larger
tropical wave to its east in a couple of days and no further
development is expected after that time. There is a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W then
reaches southwestward through the aforementioned AL97 to
13.5N30W. It resumes farther west from 14N39W to 07N48W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 07N49W to 08N56W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is present south of the first monsoon
trough segment from 06N to 14N between the Senegal- Guinea coast
and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 13N
between 33W and 40W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters just north of Panama and northwestern Colombia
to the south of 14N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A very weak stationary front curves westward from the Florida
Panhandle through the north-central Gulf to Corpus Christi,
Texas. Isolated showers are seen near this front. A surface
trough over the Bay of Campeche is producing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Outside of
convection, modest surface ridging is supporting light to gentle
winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft over the basin.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
throughout the forecast period supporting light to moderate
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about large swell
generated by Major Hurricane Lee impacting the northeast
Caribbean islands. Please see the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section
for convection near the northwestern Colombia offshore waters.

A mid to upper-level trough persists from the Yucatan Channel
southeastward to northern Colombia. Divergent southerly winds
north of its axis are coupling with modest convergent
northeasterly winds to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Gulf of Honduras. A weak trade-wind
regime continues across much of the basin, except for moderate
to locally fresh trades across the southeast and central
portions, where seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Mainly gentle E to SE
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere
in the basin, including the Windward Passage. Large E to ENE
swell generated from Lee are impacting the coastal waters of the
northern Leeward Islands, and bleeding through the Caribbean
Passages and into the extreme NE Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lee is near 21.6N 61.0W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 958 mb. Lee will move to 22.3N 62.1W this evening,
23.0N 63.3W Mon morning, 23.4N 64.5W Mon evening, 23.8N 65.6W
Tue morning, 24.2N 66.5W Tue evening, and 24.7N 67.2W Wed
morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to near
27.3N 67.9W early Thu. In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean through Mon.
Large easterly swell from Lee is dominating the Atlantic waters
from the northern Leeward Islands to the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Large swell will gradually become NE and then N, and
move through the Caribbean Passages and into the Caribbean
waters between the Leeward Islands and the Mona Passage this
afternoon through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot. Please see the
TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ for convection in the
tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough extends northward from southeast Florida to
near 30N78W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along and up to 180 nm east of this feature.

Outside the influence of Lee, Margot, and AL97, a surface ridge
is supporting gentle to moderate NE and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
swell north of 24N between the west coast of Africa and 32.5W.
To the west, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are found north of 20N between 74W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. North of the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to
fresh NE winds exist from 16.5N to 25N between the coast of
Africa and 30W. To the south from 06N to 14N between the Guinea-
Liberia coast and 30W, light to gentle monsoonal winds and 5 to
8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are present. For the
tropical Atlantic, gentle with locally moderate trade winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells dominate from 05N to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in large southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin to the NW of Lee.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee is near 21.6N 61.0W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Lee will move to 22.3N 62.1W this
evening, 23.0N 63.3W Mon morning, 23.4N 64.5W Mon evening, 23.8N
65.6W Tue morning, 24.2N 66.5W Tue evening, and 24.7N 67.2W Wed
morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to near
27.3N 67.9W early Thu.  Large E to SE swell dominating the
waters east of 73W will continue to propagate westward across
the Atlc, reaching the central Bahamas and 75W this evening, the
NW Bahamas and 78W Mon evening, and the Florida coasts Tue
afternoon.

$$
KRV
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