[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 18.2N 54.5W at 08/1500 UTC or 490
nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. 12 ft seas are within
240 NM in the NE, 180 NM in the SE, 120 NM in the SW, and 210 NM
in the NW quadrants with seas to 48 ft. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted within 180 NM of the center.
The system is expected to continue moving at the same direction
through early next week with a significant decrease in forward
speed. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few
days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through early next week. Peak seas remain extremely large near the
center of Lee with values of 40-50 ft. Large easterly swell over
the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the passages of the NE
Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the
Mona Passage Sun. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East
Coast beginning Sunday.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 18.0N 32.5W at 08/1500
UTC or 500 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 12 ft seas are
45 NM in the NE, 15 NM in the SW, and 30 NM in the NW quadrants
with peak seas of 13 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 240 NM of the NE semicircle. The
movement toward the west- northwest is expected to continue for
the next day or two, with a turn towards a more northwestward
motion early next week. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane later
this weekend. Peak seas are expected to reach 20-25 ft in a couple
of days near the center of Margot.

Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is identified existing the West African coast
near 20W extending from 05N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N-15N between 18W-22W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Senegal near 13N16W
and extends west-southwestward to 12N21W, then resumes from
11N32W to 07N38W. ITCZ then continues from 07N38W to 07N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N between
18W-22W and from 05N-08N between 35W-38W. The eastern North
Pacific's monsoon trough crosses Central America into the
Caribbean near 09N82W and extends to a 1008 mb low near 11N76W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south
of 11N west of 79W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough extends across the northern
Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico from 30N82W to 29N85W
with scattered moderate to strong convection north of 26N between
79W-85W. This is being supported by a mid to upper-level trough
centered over Georgia and northern Florida. Away from
thunderstorms, winds across the Gulf are very quiescent with light
to gentle breezes prevailing due to a weak ridge in place. Seas
are only 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting only light
to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate to fresh trades
over the central Caribbean with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are
4-6 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in
the central and E Caribbean into the weekend. Large easterly swell
over the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the passages of the
NE Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the
Mona Passage Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning for
information about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot.

In addition to the two tropical cyclones, a prominent surface
trough extends from 23N74W to 31N67W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 NM of the trough axis, but no
significant winds or seas are in association with the system.

A expansive Bermuda/Azores High is centered well north of our
waters with ridging extending to the Georgia border to the west
and to 28N20W to the east. South of the ridge line, trades are
generally gentle to moderate away from the tropical cyclones. Seas
are 2-4 ft west of 70W and 4-8 ft east of 70W away from the two
systems.

For the forecast W of 55W, Lee will move to 19.0N 56.1W this
evening, 20.0N 57.9W Sat morning, 20.8N 59.4W Sat evening, 21.5N
60.8W Sun morning, 22.1N 62.0W Sun evening, and 22.7N 63.1W Mon
morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to near
23.5N 65.5W early Tue. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin
to impact the Anegada Passage and adjacent waters Sat morning, and
reach the Mona Passage beginning early Sun morning. Beyond Mon,
Lee is expected to begin to turn NW and slowly weaken.

$$
Landsea
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