[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 031436
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 03 2023

Katia has a large, well-defined circulation on visible satellite
imagery, but any associated deep convection is well north of the
center. Intensity estimates are mostly at tropical-storm strength,
so the initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Weakening should
resume later today as a combination of southerly shear and very dry
air in the mid-levels wipes out the rest of the deep convection.
The global models continue to show no organized thunderstorm
activity by tomorrow, and thus remnant low status is anticipated at
that time.

The storm is still moving northwest, but a bit slower at 6 kt.
Katia is forecast to be steered between a large middle- to
upper-tropospheric cut-off low to the west over the subtropical
Atlantic and a northwest-to-southeast oriented mid-level ridge to
the east during the next 36 hours or so.  As the tropical cyclone
weakens, it should get trapped within the low-level subtropical
ridge, causing little motion in a couple of days, with the forecast
remnants of Katia drifting southeastward at at long range.  Other
than a small northward adjustment based on the initial position, no
notable changes were made to the NHC predicted track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 26.7N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.3N  33.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 27.8N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 28.3N  34.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 28.5N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z 28.3N  34.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 27.8N  33.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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