[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 022043
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Satellite images indicate that Gert has become less organized since
this morning.  The low-level center is now exposed, with decreasing
deep convection.  Intensity estimates support keeping Gert at 45 kt
for now, which remains near the UW-CIMSS SATCON value.

The storm is finally moving at a more substantial pace, north-
northeast at 8 kt, as it gets caught up in flow around Idalia to
the west-northwest.  Gert should continue to accelerate north-
northeastward tonight and northward tomorrow around the eastern
side of Idalia's large circulation.  The global models remain
consistent in showing the small circulation of Gert getting
torn apart by Idalia on Monday, reminiscent of the way that
Franklin took care of Jose yesterday.  No substantial changes in
intensity are expected as any decrease in organization should be
roughly compensated by the large increase in forward.  The new NHC
track and intensity forecast are basically unchanged from the
previous ones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 28.4N  53.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 29.8N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 32.1N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 35.5N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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