[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is centered near 31.8N 65.3W at
02/0300 UTC or 40 nm SW of Bermuda, moving E at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.Gale force winds are
currently occurring north of 30N between 64W and 69W. Seas are
peaking around 20 ft near 31N69W. Strong to near gale force
winds, along with seas of 12 ft or greater currently cover
waters north of 29N between 63W and 72W. A gale warning is in
effect through Sat afternoon, with gale force winds expected N
of 30N between 63W and 71W during that time. A cold front in the
area extends from 31N64W to 24N74W, and continues to northeast
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm
associated with a pre-frontal trough, including over the
northeast and central Bahamas. he post-tropical cyclone is
moving toward the east near 14 kt and this general trajectory at
a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward
the northeast is forecast on Sunday.  On the forecast track,
Idalia will remain near Bermuda today, and then begin to move
away from the island on Sunday. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next few days. Idalia could transition to a
tropical or subtropical storm later today. Swells generated by
Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S. coast and Bermuda
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 28.2N 54.9W at 02/0300 UTC
or 570 nm ESE of Bermuda, stationary. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 11 ft near the center. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm N
semicircle and 140 nm S semicircle.  Gert is stationary. A
northward motion is expected to begin on Saturday and continue
into Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast before Gert
becomes absorbed by Idalia by early Monday.

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 21.6N 28.7W at
02/0300 UTC or 430 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas near the
center are around 6 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 240 nm of the center in the NE
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also within 90 nm
SE quadrant. The depression is moving toward the north near 20
kt.  A turn to northwest is expected shortly and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Monday. Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm on later today.  Weakening is expected
to begin by early Sunday, and the system could degenerate into a
remnant low by late Sunday.

Remnants Of Jose is centered near 42.1N 47.4W at 02/0300 UTC or
1020 nm NE of Bermuda, moving NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt.

See hurricanes.gov for public advisories on the active systems
and for the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. See
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest
High Seas Forecast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong tropical wave is located along the west coast of Africa
near 17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 07N to 18N
between 14W and 22W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system by the middle part
of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. There is
a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours and high chance within the next 7 days.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on
tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery and is now near
62W. No significant convection is depicted in association with
this wave.

A tropical wave was introduced into the 00Z surface analysis
based on wave diagnostics. This wave is located in the central
Caribbean near 72W from 20N southward. No significant convection
is depicted over the waters in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 10N15W to 14N21W. The monsoon trough resumes from
14N34W to 09N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
sections above, isolated showers are depicted from 06N to 11N
between 40W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present over the NE
Gulf. A surface trough extends from the mouth of the Mississippi
River to the central Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are near the west coast of Yucatan and the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf,
except for fresh near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are 3 ft or less across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over
the central Gulf will drift westward as high pressure continues
to build over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be higher
near thunderstorms associated with the trough. Moderate to fresh
winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through
Sun night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will persist
through early next week with slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
convection affecting parts of the Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms
leftover from afternoon heating of landmasses have drifted
offshore the south coast of Cuba and offshore the west coast of
Jamaica.

Fresh easterly trade winds cover the central Caribbean, except
for strong within 120 nm of the coasts of NW Venezuela and NE
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Mainly moderate
easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the eastern
Caribbean and most of the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the
central Caribbean through tonight with moderate seas. Meanwhile,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades
will weaken on Sat as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Post-
Tropical Cyclone Idalia, Remnants of Jose, Tropical Storm Gert
and Tropical Depression Twelve.

Outside of the systems mentioned in the SPECIAL FEATURES section,
high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. With the exception of
scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 37W and 42W
in association with a surface trough.

For the forecast W of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is near
31.8N 65.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving east at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Idalia will move to 31.6N 64.3W Sat
morning, 31.8N 62.9W Sat evening, 32.8N 61.2W Sun morning,
become extratropical and move to 34.5N 59.5W Sun evening. Gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas associated with Idalia
will impact the north waters through the weekend. Conditions
will begin to improve by early next week. Tropical Storm Gert is
near 28.2N 54.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 0 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Gert will move to 28.3N
54.4W Sat morning, 29.1N 53.8W Sat evening, 30.3N 53.1W Sun
morning, 32.0N 52.4W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning.
Gert will slowly move away from the eastern offshore waters on
Sat. Strong winds and moderate seas will impact the outer
forecast waters due to Gert tonight.

$$
KRV
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