[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 011453
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert's structure hasn't changed much since it regenerated, and it
remains strongly sheared from the north. ASCAT is not expected to
sample Gert this morning, so the 30-kt intensity is based entirely
on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The tropical depression appears to have continued its eastward
track this morning. For the next day or so, a continued eastward
track is likely. After that, the uncertainty is quite large. Over
the weekend, Gert will likely begin to gain latitude as its steering
is influenced by the much larger Idalia to its northwest, and a
ridge to its east. However, the models have pretty large differences
in how fast Gert may move once it begins to turn. Regardless of its
exact track, by day 4, Gert should either become a poorly defined
post-tropical cyclone or be absorbed into the circulation of Idalia.
The NHC forecast is slower and farther south than the previous
advisory to remain near the multi-model consensus.

The shear currently affecting Gert will likely remain in place for
the next few days, which covers about the entirety that Gert is
expected to last as a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, Gert is
already very near the threshold to become a tropical storm again,
and it would not take much increase in convection or organization
for that to happen. Later in the forecast period, Gert is forecast
to weaken and dissipate. Though there is a chance it could become
post-tropical without being absorbed into Idalia, if that happens
its low-level center will likely become poorly defined in the
process, still resulting in dissipation for the purposes of this
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 28.7N  54.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 28.8N  53.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 28.9N  52.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 29.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 30.5N  51.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 32.7N  51.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 35.4N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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