[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 37.8N 57.0W at 01/0900 UTC
or 500 nm NE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. NW swell caused by Franklin will subside
this morning as the system continues pulling farther away.

Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 33.9N 52.0W at 01/0900 UTC
or 650 nm ENE of Bermuda, moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking around 12 ft near the
center. Jose is rather small in size. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. An accelerated
northward motion is expected today. Weakening is forecast, and
Jose is expected to become absorbed by Franklin tonight or early
Saturday.

Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Gert is centered near 28.7N
55.0W at 01/0900 UTC or 550 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving E at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking to 8 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 30N between 54W
to 58W. TD Gert will have a slower eastward motion today. A turn
toward the northeast is expected on Saturday and that motion
should continue through late in the weekend. Some slight
strengthening is possible today, and Gert could become a tropical
storm once again. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin over the
weekend.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is centered near 32.6N 69.8W at
01/0900 UTC or 250 nm W of Bermuda, moving ESE at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A gale warning is in
effect through Sat, with gale force winds occurring N of 29N
between 68W and 75W. Seas are peaking near 21 ft with the 12 ft
seas extending N of 29N between 67W and 77W. An east-
southeastward to eastward motion at a much slower forward speed is
expected during the 24 hours. An east-northeastward motion is
expected to begin over the weekend. On the forecast track, Idalia
will approach Bermuda over the weekend. Gradual weakening is
forecast through early Saturday. Restrengthening is possible over
the weekend, and Idalia is expected to transition back to a
tropical storm on Saturday. Swells generated by Idalia will
affect the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of days
and will reach Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

See hurricanes.gov for public advisories on the active systems
and for the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. See
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest
High Seas Forecast.

Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an elongated area of low-pressure located just
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A short-lived tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form today while the system moves
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. A low pressure is along the wave near 18N at
1006 mb which is AL94. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 16N to 24N between 26W and 30W. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 69W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 12N to 15N between 58W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 19N southward to
eastern Panama, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W to AL94 to near 09N46W. The ITCZ continues from 09N46W
to 10N54W. Outside of the convection associated with AL94, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 35W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches across the Gulf of Mexico from just
south of Pensacola, FL to the northern Bay of Campeche. A 1010 mb
low is along the trough near 24N92W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along this trough and in the
eastern Gulf from 22N to 30N between 83W and 93W. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas cover the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over the
central Gulf will drift westward as high pressure continues to
build over the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will persist through early
next week with slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted around the Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica coastline from 10N to 17N and W of 81W.
Thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras.
Additionally, thunderstorms are seen around the SW coast of Haiti
and south of the Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge along 23N continues to support
fresh trades across the central Caribbean, strong in the south-
central basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate
to locally fresh trades are in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 81W with 3-5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central
Caribbean through tonight with moderate seas. Meanwhile, gentle
to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean with
moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will
weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia, Tropical Depression Gert, and Invest AL94.

Outside of the storms mentioned above, conditions continue to
improve off the Florida and Bahamas coast with gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas. S of 25N and E of 70W, light to gentle
winds prevail with slight seas. In the central and eastern
Atlantic E of 50W, outside of AL94, gentle to moderate winds
prevail with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia will
move to 31.8N 67.9W this afternoon, 31.0N 66.3W Sat morning, 31.0N
65.2W Sat afternoon, 31.7N 63.6W Sun morning, 33.2N 61.8W Sun
afternoon, and 34.6N 60.2W Mon morning. Gale force winds and rough
to very rough seas associated with the southern periphery of
Idalia will impact the north waters today through the weekend.
Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Gert will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 28.7N 54.0W this afternoon, move to 29.1N
53.1W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N
52.6W Sat afternoon, 30.7N 52.2W Sun morning, 32.3N 51.8W Sun
afternoon, and 34.7N 51.7W Mon morning. Gert will dissipate early
Tue. Strong winds and moderate seas will impact the outer forecast
waters due to Gert through this morning.

$$
AReinhart
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