[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near New
Port Richie, Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Gale force
winds and high seas are noted in the wake of the front, from 25N
into the Bay of Campeche, where ship VROQ reported 40 kt NNW winds
at 1800 UTC. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts, mainly over
the SW Gulf late tonight through Wed, with seas building to 20
ft. The front will move SE of the basin by Wed morning. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force over the SW Gulf by Wed
evening.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough near the Senegal/Guinea
Bissau border then continues SW to near 05N39W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N39W to 04N44W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted over the E Atlantic from 02.5N to 11N from
the African coast to 35W, but are numerous within 240 nm of the
coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N of
the ITCZ between 42W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from New Port Richie, Florida to the NW
Yucatan Peninsula. This front will continue to move across the
Gulf waters followed by gale force winds and high seas. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details.

A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate
showers is S of 25N and within 240 nm behind the front. This
cloudiness is also banked up along the E slope of the Sierra
Madre Mountains in Mexico where drizzle has been reported.

For the forecast, gale force winds may reach severe gale with
seas building to 20 ft over the Bay of Campeche tonight through
Wed behind the cold front. The front will move southeast of the
basin by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force over the Bay of Campeche by Wed evening. Winds and seas
will also begin to diminish across the NW Gulf tomorrow, and
across much of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure (AL97) over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues this
evening, but has not become any better organized. Although
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further
development during the next several days while the system moves
westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the
end of the week. Currently, this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance
through 7 days.

A broad area of low pressure remains over the N central
Caribbean, centered just SE of Jamaica, where afternoon
scatterometer data confirmed the circulation of a 1009 mb low
pressure near 17N76W. Showers and thunderstorms are observed over
parts of portions of Jamaica and across the waters between the
island and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across most of the
central and NW Caribbean light and variable winds prevail with
seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. Moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are occurring in the eastern Carribbean.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure over the E Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development during the next several days while the system
moves westward over the central and SW Caribbean Sea, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this
week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are expected across the
basin through tomorrow morning. At that time, a strong cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean, move from E Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri morning, before
dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas
will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure is located near 28N75W. No significant
convection is depicted in association with this low. A surface
trough extends from the low southward across to the central
Bahamas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N northward between 66W and 73W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward
across the waters between 57W and 68W. Another 1010 mb low
pressure system is near 25.5N50.5W. Fresh NE winds are mainly on
the NW and NE sides of the low center with seas of 6 to 7 ft.
To the NE, fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas 8 to 10 ft
are occurring from 27N to 31N between 30W and 38W, associated with
a surface trough. South of 23N and E of 40W, mainly light to
gentle winds are seen based on satellite derived wind data. Seas
of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters S of
24N and E of 60W. Lastly, scattered showers and a few mild
thunderstorms related to an upper-level low are affecting the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles from 10N to 15N between 47W and
52W.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak low pressure centered just
northeast of the NW Bahamas will move northeastward ahead of an
approaching strong cold front. The front is expected to enter the
NW waters late tonight, reach from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move back westward to the NW
Bahamas by Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near
gale-force NE winds are expected behind the front through Sat.

$$
Stripling
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