[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida
Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very
rough seas are noted in the wake of the front. A recent altimeter
pass indicated seas of 12 to 17 ft within the gale force winds.
Winds may reach storm-force in gusts, mainly over the SW Gulf
late today through Wed, with seas building to 20 ft. The front
will move SE of the basin by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force over the SW Gulf by Wed evening.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough near the Senegal/Guinea
Bissau border then continues SW to near 11N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N18W to 07N30W to 04N45W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 16W
and 41W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 07N between 08W and 14W. This convective activity is
affecting parts of the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from
04N to 10N between 21W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by gale
force winds and very rough seas. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

A wide band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is associated
with the front. This cloudiness is banked up along the E slope of
the Sierra Madre Mountains where drizzle has been reported.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the SE
Gulf.

For the forecast, marine conditions across the Gulf region will be
associated with the passage of the aforementioned cold front
through Wed. High pressure is expected in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough of low pressure (AL97) over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
during the next several days while the system moves westward over
the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the
end of this week. Currently, this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
through 7 days.

An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central Caribbean,
with a surface trough extending northward across eastern Cuba. A
1008 mb low pressure is analyzed just S of Jamaica near 16.5N76W.
An ASCAT pass reveals the cyclonic circulation associated with
this system, with moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds on E
side of the low center. Showers and thunderstorms are observed
over parts of Jamaica and eastern Cuba in association with this
feature. Elsewhere across most of the central and NW Caribbean
light and variable winds prevail with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
occurring behind the aforementioned trough of low pressure.

For the forecast, outside of AL97, light to gentle winds are expected
across the basin through early Wed, with the exception of moderate
to locally fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean behind
the above mentioned trough of low pressure. A cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean Wed morning, and begin to stall from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then drift westward Fri and
Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the
front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A well-defined area of low pressure is located near 27N75.5W or
about 80 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. This system is
forecast to turn slowly northward and then northeastward by the
middle part of this week while weakening. A surface trough
extends from the low southward across the central Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the
low pressure center and to the E side from 20N to 29N between 66W
and 70W where fresh to strong SE winds are also seen based on
scatterometer data.

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southward
across the waters between 55W and 65W. Another low pressure
system is near 25N49W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are mainly
on the NW side of the low center with seas of 8 to 9 ft. A surface
trough extends from this low to another low pressure center of
1008 mb located near 31N28W, then to a third low pressure center
of 1008 mb situated mid-way between the Madeira and the Canary
Islands. These low pressure areas are generating fresh to strong
winds and seas greater than 8 ft. S of the trough, mainly light
to gentle winds are seen based on satellite derived wind data.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters S
of 24N and E of 60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms related
to an upper-level low are affecting the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles from 10n to 16N between 44W and 56W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front is expected to enter the
NW waters early Wed morning, reach from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas early Thu morning, then stall from 31N60W to the SE
Bahamas on Thu. Strong winds, with gusts to gale-force, and rough
seas are expected behind the front through Thu night.

$$
GR
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