[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving across
the western Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin
by Wed evening. Gale force winds and building seas to 16 ft are
ongoing S of Tampico between the coast of Mexico and the front.
Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late
Tue through Wed. Rough to very rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. The forecast calls for winds of 30 to 40 kt and
seas in the 12 to 21 ft range over the SW Gulf, including the
Veracruz area, Tue evening into Wed morning.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Senegal
near 12N16W then continues SW to near 08N27W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N27W to 06N39W to 07N49W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 15W and 39W, and from
11N to 17N between 45W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the western Gulf from SW Alabama to
24N94W to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds and building seas
are ongoing behind the front S of 26N. Please, refer to the
Special Features section for more details.

Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the
front, with seas generally 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE
across the entire basin by Wed evening with gale-force winds and
quickly building seas following the front through Wed. Winds may
reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue
through Wed with seas building to 20 ft. Winds and seas will begin
the subside from the NW on Thu as the front stalls across the NW
Caribbean and central Bahamas.

CARIBBEAN SEA

A 1010 mb low pressure is drifting northward over the central
Caribbean near 15N76W with a trough through the Windward Passage
and into the central Bahamas. Disturbed weather continues over
much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Upper level divergence is
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms over the the SE
Caribbean as well as S of Dominican Republic. Moderate SE winds
are to the E of this area of convection along with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the low will drift NW and weaken through Wed,
while new low pressure develops S of Hispaniola. This new system
and associated weather is expected to move slowly westward through
the remainder of the week, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could
form late this week when the system reaches the W central or
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
are expected across the basin through early Wed. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean midday Wed and begin to stall
from central Cuba to Belize on Thu, then begin to drift westward
Fri and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will
follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers is
located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas continues
to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side.
However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain
disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-
level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-
lived tropical storm are decreasing. The low is expected to move
slowly northwestward today and then turn northward and
northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force this afternoon.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward
across the waters between 50W and 60W. Another low pressure
system is near 27N48.5W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the NW
side of the low center with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A cold front
extends across the western Canary Islands to 27.5N18W, then
transitions to a stationary front to a 1005 mb low pressure
located N of area near 32N33W. Moderate NE winds and seas around 8
ft are seen in the wake of the front. Another trough extends from
30N30W through 28N44W. A few showers are near the trough axis.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with
seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure center near
25.5N74.5W continues to produce an area of gale-force winds within
150 nm NE of the low. A surface trough extends from the low
southward through the SE Bahamas. The low is expected to move
slowly west- northwestward today, with winds diminishing below
gale-force, and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday
and Wednesday and weaken further. A strong cold front is forecast
to move into the NW waters Wed, and reach from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas early Thu.

$$
Ramos
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