[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 281449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

Tammy has not changed much this morning. The impact of strong
westerly wind shear is evident, with an exposed low-level center
apparent in visible satellite imagery. Modest deep convection
remains confined to the eastern half of the circulation, and cloud
tops have continued to gradually warm. The subjective TAFB
satellite estimate of T3.0/45 kt and a blend of objective satellite
estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory.

Under the continued influence of strong shear for the next 48
hours, as well as a dry mid-level airmass approaching from the
northwest, Tammy is expected to continue weakening. Global and
regional models suggest that most of the deep convection will
diminish by late Sunday or Monday, at which time Tammy is forecast
to become a remnant low.  The NHC forecast is similar to the prior
forecast and represents a blend of the prior forecast and intensity
consensus models.

Tammy has accelerated this morning and is now moving east-northeast
or 080/10 kt. The tropical storm is expected to continue eastward
and southeastward for the next day or so along the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and its
remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn toward the
south and southwest before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is
slightly faster than the prior advisory and represents a blend of
consensus aids HCCA and TVCN with the prior NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 33.3N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 33.1N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 32.3N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 30.9N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 29.2N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0000Z 27.8N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 27.1N  49.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 27.5N  51.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
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