[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 241442
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

The hurricane has held steady this morning.  Satellite imagery
depicts deep bursts of convection mainly to the north of the center
and a large curved band around the northern and eastern portions of
the system.  The most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate is still
T4.0/65kt, and the initial intensity remains at 65 kt for this
advisory.

Tammy is moving northeastward with an estimated motion of 035/6 kt.
A mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic should steer
the hurricane more northward in a day or so.  By day 2, most of the
global model guidance shows Tammy turning westward and slowing down
between two mid-level ridges through the remainder of the forecast
period.  Only minor adjustments have been made in the latest NHC
track prediction, which lies in the middle of the track guidance
envelope.

Intensity guidance continues to suggest Tammy should slightly
strengthen in the near term.  As the hurricane approaches the
mid-latitude trough, it should enter a region with enhanced
upper-level divergence, and thus strengthen.  After about a day or
so, strong deep-layer vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface
temperatures should gradually weaken the cyclone.  Tammy is still
expected to become a gale-force extratropical cyclone by 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 24.2N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 25.0N  61.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 26.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 28.6N  59.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 30.1N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 31.2N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z 31.8N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z 32.5N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  29/1200Z 32.6N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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