[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 13.5N 54.8W at 19/0900 UTC
or 420 nm ESE of Guadeloupe, moving W at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 18 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 15N and between 50W and 56W. On the forecast
track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward
Islands Friday and Saturday. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next few days and Tammy could be near hurricane
intensity by the end of the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the tropical Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to
07N27W and then to 01N41W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 18W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure center over the Carolinas,
which is providing E to SE gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters providing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
through tonight. A frontal system will bring fresh winds to the NE
Gulf Fri and Fri night. Light to gentle variable winds will
dominate the basin afterward through Sun. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds are forecast to develop Sun night into early next week as
the pressure gradient increases between a ridge over the E CONUS
and a system of low pressure over the W CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Tammy located east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Tammy is near 13.5N 54.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and
lower pressure in NW Colombia supports fresh to strong easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and wave heights of
4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tammy will move to 13.9N 56.4W this afternoon,
14.5N 58.2W Fri morning, 15.5N 60.0W Fri afternoon, 16.8N 61.3W
Sat morning, 18.4N 62.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.9N 63.1W Sun
morning. Tammy will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.3N 63.0W
early Mon. A weakening stationary front extending from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate later today. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
basin will diminish tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds
associated with Tammy will start affecting the NE Caribbean waters
this evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Tammy located east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Tammy is near 13.5N 54.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.

A stationary front extends from 31N63W to eastern Cuba supporting
scattered showers in the southern Bahamas as well as Turks and
Caicos. Ahead of the front and well to the NE of Puerto Rico,
upper level diffluence supports a broad area of showers and tstms
from 19N to 27N between 57W and 65W. The remainder subtropical
Atlc is under the influence of a ridge supporting mainly gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tammy will move to 13.9N 56.4W this
afternoon, 14.5N 58.2W Fri morning, 15.5N 60.0W Fri afternoon,
16.8N 61.3W Sat morning, 18.4N 62.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.9N
63.1W Sun morning. Tammy will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.3N
63.0W early Mon. The stationary front will weaken today before
dissipating. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of
the front. The next frontal system will move offshore the
southeastern United States Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are forecast north of 27N Fri night through Sat night
with this system.

$$
Ramos
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